FSU Oilseeds - Raising the Curtain Thorsten Tiedemann Toepfer International, Hamburg

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Vancouver, March 21, 2007 CANOLA – Growing Great 2015!. FSU Oilseeds - Raising the Curtain Thorsten Tiedemann Toepfer International, Hamburg. ACTI‘s Office Locations. 40 offices 900 employees Turnover 40 mln t. Hamburg. Dublin. Warsaw. Rotterdam Antwerp. London. Budapest. Paris.
Vancouver, March 21, 2007CANOLA – Growing Great 2015!FSU Oilseeds - Raising the CurtainThorsten TiedemannToepfer International, HamburgMarch 21, 2007ACTI‘s Office Locations40 offices900 employeesTurnover 40 mln tHamburgDublinWarsaw RotterdamAntwerpLondonBudapestParisBucharestBasleSofiaWinnipegAthensMadridShanghaiKievBeijingRostovDalianOdessaMinneapolisTehranBangkokAmmanNew OrleansTampaCairoTaipeiMumbaiManilaHo Chi Minh CitySingaporeJakartaSao PauloRosarioMontevideoAdelaideBuenos AiresMarch 21, 2007March 21, 2007The Appearance of the FSU-12 on the World Grain MarketExport Surplus due to a Drop in Grain UseExportsSource: USDAImportsMarch 21, 2007FSU-12: Grain and Oilseed Acreage Development since 1990 in mln haSource: USDAMarch 21, 2007FSU-12: Oilseed Production by Type of OilseedSource: USDAMarch 21, 2007World Sunflower ProductionAlmost 50% produced in the Black Sea RegionWorld Production:30.6 mln t in 2006Source: USDAMarch 21, 2007Russia: Sunflower S&D in mln t Source: USDAMarch 21, 2007Russia: Exports of Sunflower Seed and Oil Source: USDAMarch 21, 2007Ukraine: Sunflower S&D in mln t Source: USDAMarch 21, 2007Ukraine: Exports of Sunflower Seed and Oil Source: USDAMarch 21, 2007Russia & Ukraine: Projection of Sunflower Production & Trade Projection RussiaProjection Ukraine
  • Sunflower acreage reached its peak (crop rotation)
  • Higher acreage possible in years with grain winter kill etc.
  • Yield increase due to better varieties (hybrids, high oleic) & farming practices
  • Crush capacity sufficient to crush the local crop
  • Seed exports only in very good crop years
  • Domestic use to increase slightly, exports to increase slightly as well
  • Source: Toepfer & USDAMarch 21, 2007Russia & Ukraine: Trends in Rapeseed Production
  • New 00 winter-varieties available
  • Royalty problem solved with hybrid seed
  • Huge difference between well and poorly managed farms
  • Poorly managed: < 1 t/ha
  • Well managed: > 4 t/ha in Ukraine
  • Well managed farms have invested in:
  • Soil preparation & seeding technology
  • “Western-style” crop protection
  • Harvest technology
  • Production Development in Russia
  • Based on export tax of 20 %
  • Profitability of competing grain
  • To triple by 2010
  • Production development in Ukraine
  • No export tax so far
  • Logistics
  • Production to quadruple by 2010
  • Source: Toepfer & USDARussiaUkraineMarch 21, 2007Russia: Rapeseed S&D in 1,000 t Source: Toepfer & USDA
  • Local rapeseed crush subsidised by differentiated export tax
  • Crush to increase, exports of rapeseed oil or RME
  • Exports should be very volatile depending on the crop year and crushing capacity
  • Exports of rapeseed difficult to predict, but on average low
  • March 21, 2007Ukraine: Rapeseed Acreage by Oblast Source: ToepferRapeseed production concentrated in central oblastsAcreage in 1,000 haMarch 21, 2007Ukraine: Rapeseed S&D in 1,000 t Source: Toepfer & USDA
  • Estimate based on the assumption that export tax is not going to be implemented
  • However, export tax possible, which should lead to sign. lower exports
  • Trend for further increase in production
  • Crushing industry should increase slightly
  • Biodiesel industry hardly viable without subsidies
  • Exports of rapeseed to increase in this scenario
  • March 21, 2007Ukraine, the new Competitor on the World Rapeseed Market in 2007/08(Exports in 1,000 t, Estimates for 2006/07 and 2007/08)Source: ToepferMarch 21, 2007Russia: Trends in Soybean Production (in mln t)Source: Toepfer & USDA
  • Soybean production in Siberia and Southern Russia to increase
  • Russian soybean trade negligible, also in the next years
  • Soybean crush to increase due to strong demand increase for soybean meal (livestock sector well protected from world market and very profitable, especially poultry production)
  • Summary: Soybean production to increase but little linkage to world marketsMarch 21, 2007Ukraine: Trends in Soybean Production (in mln t)Source: Toepfer & USDA
  • Soybean production to increase in central and south-eastern Ukraine
  • Crush is also expected to increase, but local demand for Soybean meal restricted so far
  • Therefore, increasing export potential for soybeans
  • Summary: Soybean production to increase, should be used partly domestically but increasing export potential March 21, 2007Conclusion I
  • Oilseed production has gained momentum in Russia and Ukraine:
  • Favourable prices compared to grain
  • Improved production technologies and varieties
  • Improved logistics
  • Future development of oilseed production based on:
  • Price development on the oilseed and grain market (fight for acreage)
  • Further improvements in logistics
  • Structural change in the farming sector – management is the scarce factor in the FSU-12 agriculture, not capital
  • Export potential depends on:
  • Trade policies, especially the export taxes
  • Biofuel policies in these countries
  • Investment climate, i.e. how attractive it is for foreign investors to built crushing plants in Russia and Ukraine
  • March 21, 2007Conclusion II4. Impact on the Canadian Canola Industry:
  • Russia, but especially Ukraine new important factor in World Rapeseed trade
  • However, production potential of all countries urgently needed to meet the world’s ever increasing demand
  • Interdependency of grain and oilseed markets
  • Markets will tell what to grow every year
  • Canadian farmers in excellent position to react in spring on the potential competition from the Black Sea region and other exporters
  • March 21, 2007
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